Dear readers, a couple of requests:
1. Please suggest any other substacks you would like to see included in this almost-daily summary letter. We will prioritize those not behind paywalls.
2. Please forward/share this and encourage others to subscribe if you find it useful. This is currently still a beta-stage and a bigger reach will encourage more development!
3. If you are happy to be featured - consider recommending News Archipelago!
Good karma guaranteed.
Oil Context Weekly (W23) (Paywalled)
Commodity Context Published: Fri, 6 Jun 2025
Rory Johnston, in his Oil Context Weekly (W23) Substack post (June 6, 2025), provides a comprehensive analysis of the week's oil market dynamics. He details a significant price recovery in crude oil, nearing its highest point since April, fueled by renewed speculative interest. This upward trend, however, is contrasted by mixed inventory data and a fluctuating timespread, highlighting the market's inherent volatility. The report also touches upon the implications of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases, the ongoing decline in the US oil rig count, and the projected decrease in global oil investment.
Johnston's analysis encompasses several key factors influencing crude oil prices, including refined product performance (diesel strengthening while gasoline weakens), and the shifting stance of speculators. He emphasizes the current market positioning, noting that while speculators are accumulating long positions, a significant bearish event could trigger a rapid sell-off. Overall, the report paints a picture of a complex and dynamic market, where various competing forces shape the price of oil, and underscores the ongoing importance of monitoring diverse market signals for a comprehensive understanding of future trends.
The Wicked Stepmother's "IF"
The Nemeth Report Published: Fri, 6 Jun 2025
Tammy Nemeth, in her The Nemeth Report Substack post, "The Wicked Stepmother's 'IF'," critiques Canada's sluggish resource development process under Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government. Nemeth draws a compelling analogy to Cinderella, highlighting how the government's seemingly supportive rhetoric masks impossibly high conditions for project approval, mirroring the wicked stepmother's manipulative tactics. This creates uncertainty and discourages investment, hindering Canada's potential as a global energy leader.
The author details how vague criteria for approving projects, emphasizing factors such as "national interest" and "national consensus," leave much to interpretation and empower Ottawa to reject applications on arbitrary grounds. This ambiguous process, Nemeth argues, resembles a subjective "to-do list" rather than a clear, fair system. The lack of transparency and the subjective nature of the approval process risk stifling investment and hindering economic growth, ultimately leaving Canada unable to compete effectively in the global energy market unless a more transparent and equitable system is implemented.
Five of My Favorite Papers and the Stories Behind Them (Paywalled)
The Honest Broker Published: Fri, 6 Jun 2025
Roger Pielke Jr. reflects on his three-decade career in academia, marking his departure and looking back on significant research contributions. In a recent Substack post, he highlights five of his favorite papers, selected not for their citation count, but for their innovative arguments and the profound sense of intellectual clarity experienced during their creation. He describes this feeling as akin to "being in the zone," drawing a parallel to the focused intensity of athletic performance.
Pielke Jr. explains that these papers represent novel arguments which resonated deeply with him. The post provides a glimpse into the intellectual journey behind these publications, offering a personal anecdote alongside each selection. He also uses the opportunity to update readers on his Substack content and offers several links to other valuable resources.
IEA Reports 2025 Energy Investment Hitting $3.3 Trillion: A Deep Dive into Markets, Countries, and Data Access
The Energy News Beat Published: Fri, 6 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their Energy News Beat Substack post, analyze the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2025 World Energy Investment report, revealing a record-breaking $3.3 trillion in global energy investment. This substantial sum reflects a 2% increase from 2024, driven by energy security concerns, economic uncertainty, and the accelerating transition to cleaner energy sources. The report underscores a significant shift, with clean energy attracting twice the investment of fossil fuels, marking a pivotal moment in the global energy landscape.
However, Turley and Tanner offer a critical perspective, arguing that the IEA's optimistic outlook overlooks crucial challenges. They highlight the continued substantial investment in fossil fuels, particularly coal, which undermines net-zero ambitions. Furthermore, they emphasize the uneven distribution of investment, favoring developed nations and neglecting the needs of developing countries. The authors introduce "Turley's Law," illustrating a correlation between increased spending on renewables like wind, solar, and hydrogen, and a corresponding increase in fossil fuel consumption, ultimately questioning the true efficacy and financial sustainability of the current energy transition narrative.
How Big is the Alaska LNG – What does that mean for Energy Security
The Energy News Beat Published: Thu, 5 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their Energy News Beat Substack post from June 5th, 2025, provide a daily energy news roundup focusing on the significant Alaska LNG project and its implications for US energy security. The authors highlight the project's massive scale, involving a gas treatment plant, an 807-mile pipeline, and an LNG export terminal, with over 50 firms expressing interest. They emphasize its potential for economic growth and job creation in Alaska, while acknowledging the anticipated environmental challenges and legal battles.
The post further discusses the decline of California's energy sector, highlighting the state's self-inflicted energy crisis and its negative impact on US energy dominance. Additional topics covered include the uncertainty surrounding future oil prices, based on bank forecasts, and the rising concerns over EV safety and insurance challenges in the wake of a cargo ship fire involving thousands of electric vehicles. The authors use these examples to illustrate a broader picture of the current state of energy and associated challenges.
Lone Star Nuclear ft. Andrew Kirima
Nuclear Barbarians Published: Thu, 5 Jun 2025
Emmet Penny's Nuclear Barbarians podcast features an interview with Andrew Kirima of the Texas Nuclear Alliance (TNA). This episode delves into Kirima's journey as a nuclear advocate, providing insights into the current state of nuclear energy within Texas and the TNA's role in the broader American nuclear landscape. Listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities surrounding nuclear power in the region.
The podcast also promotes the upcoming TNA Summit in October and provides links to Kirima's other ventures, including his involvement with Exodys Energy. The episode offers a valuable perspective on the ongoing discussion and development of nuclear energy in the United States, making it essential listening for anyone interested in the future of this energy source.
Mutually Assured Destruction
The Econolog Published: Thu, 5 Jun 2025
John Kohler, in his The Econolog Substack post from June 5th, 2025, analyzes the significant geopolitical ramifications of a recent Ukrainian raid on Russian airfields. Kohler details the “Operation Spiderweb,” initially reported as a devastating blow to Russia's long-range bomber fleet, highlighting the discrepancy between initial claims of 41 destroyed planes and the likely much lower actual figure, possibly under ten. He emphasizes the operation's impact transcends the immediate military losses.
The article argues that the Ukrainian action represents a significant disruption of a meticulously constructed power balance maintained for decades through a tacit understanding of mutually assured destruction. The event's true consequence lies not simply in the number of aircraft destroyed but in its potential to unravel established risk-management strategies and destabilize the geopolitical landscape. Kohler concludes by underscoring the gravity of the situation, suggesting that the incident's long-term effects are far-reaching and potentially transformative for international relations.
Energy Thinks: The Zombie Myth
Energy Thinks Published: Thu, 5 Jun 2025
Tisha Schuller, in her Substack post "Energy Thinks: The Zombie Myth," published on June 5th, 2025, dissects the persistent myth of an easy energy transition. Schuller argues that this narrative, far from being a helpful simplification, is a dangerous falsehood hindering effective action in the energy sector. She explores the implications of this "zombie myth" for companies navigating market volatility, highlighting the need for proactive leadership in the oil and gas industry to define the future energy landscape and avoid being overtaken by others.
This solo episode of her Energy Thinks podcast unpacks the reasons behind the myth's persistence, examining what companies are currently doing to adapt and what oil and gas leaders must do to proactively shape the future. Schuller's forthcoming book, The Myth and The Moment, further explores these themes. The post concludes with calls to action, including promoting upcoming podcast seasons, newsletter subscriptions, and offering strategic briefings for executives facing these evolving energy challenges.
Let's give water the climate treatment (Paywalled)
Irina Slav on Energy Published: Thu, 5 Jun 2025
Irina Slav examines the parallels between the narrative surrounding water scarcity and previous alarmist campaigns, particularly those concerning climate change and energy. Slav argues that reports of impending water crises, and the resulting policy responses, are being manipulated to centralize control over water resources, mirroring the tactics used in the climate emergency narrative. She highlights the use of alarming language and questionable data to justify increased government intervention and potentially harmful restrictions on water consumption.
The author criticizes the European Commission's new Water resilience strategy, pointing out the use of AI and education as proposed solutions while simultaneously implementing consumption restrictions. Slav suggests that these actions, justified under the guise of addressing water scarcity, represent a further encroachment of government control, echoing previous examples of leveraging public anxieties to justify expanding bureaucratic power. This, she argues, is a dangerous trend that requires critical examination and resistance.
“Rightwing” lawmakers in Texas to limit renewable power projects has failed in the state legislature, underscoring…
The Energy News Beat Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their June 4th, 2025, Energy News Beat Substack post, analyze the recent Texas legislative session's impact on energy policy. They highlight the allocation of $5 billion to the Texas Energy Fund, primarily bolstering natural gas power plants, while a smaller portion supports backup power for critical infrastructure. This demonstrates Texas's commitment to reliable, dispatchable power, though critics argue the heavy focus on fossil fuels hinders renewable energy development and potentially raises consumer costs. The authors also discuss the failure of legislation aimed at limiting renewable energy projects, characterizing the opposing coalition as a powerful lobby and questioning the European media's portrayal of this as a "right-wing" effort.
The post further explores the implications of a significant shortage of natural gas turbines, resulting in extended lead times and increased costs, impacting new power plant construction. This shortage, driven by surging electricity demand and supply chain constraints, challenges projections for meeting future energy needs. Turley and Tanner conclude by questioning the influence of lobbyists in shaping energy policies both at the state and national levels, suggesting a need for a more comprehensive approach to balancing reliable power generation with sustainable energy sources, and recommending that investors consider utilities, natural gas plant manufacturers, and companies involved in oil, gas, and royalty operations.
An Open Letter To The Pension Funds Holding Tesla Shares
Jaberwock Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Jaberwock, in their June 4th, 2025 Substack post, "An Open Letter To The Pension Funds Holding Tesla Shares," delivers a scathing critique of Tesla's current trajectory and urges pension funds to divest their holdings. The author argues that Elon Musk's leadership, marked by erratic decisions, failed promises (like "full self-driving"), and alignment with extreme political factions, has irrevocably damaged the Tesla brand and jeopardized the company's future. Jaberwock highlights Tesla's declining sales, plummeting profit margins, and overvalued stock price as evidence of a failing business model, pointing to the Cybertruck's poor sales and a planned, yet likely flawed, robotaxi launch as further indicators of impending doom.
The post emphasizes the fiduciary responsibility of pension fund managers to protect their constituents' investments. Jaberwock contends that Tesla's current market valuation is unsustainable, fueled by hype and speculative trading, and ultimately constitutes a risky, meme-stock investment unsuitable for pension funds. The author directly advises pension funds to sell their Tesla shares, arguing that continuing to hold them represents a significant risk to pensioners' retirement income and that a 40-hour work week for Elon Musk is wholly insufficient to address the fundamental issues facing the company.
What is a "Worst Case" Climate Scenario? (Paywalled)
The Honest Broker Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Roger Pielke Jr., in his Substack post "What is a 'Worst Case' Climate Scenario?", examines the prevalent use of the RCP8.5 climate scenario, which he argues is not only implausible but also falsified due to its significant divergence from real-world emissions data. He criticizes the circular definition of "worst-case scenario" often employed, highlighting that it's frequently simply the most extreme scenario available rather than a scientifically assessed, truly worst-case projection. This lack of rigorous definition, Pielke Jr. argues, leads to flawed policy decisions based on improbable outcomes.
The author emphasizes the inherent political nature of defining "worst-case scenarios," with different actors—climate advocates and those opposed to climate action—potentially influencing the selection to serve their own agendas. Pielke Jr. calls for a more inclusive and democratic process for defining worst-case scenarios, involving experts, policymakers, stakeholders, and citizens, to ensure that these crucial projections are both scientifically sound and societally legitimate, fostering more robust and informed policymaking.
Why The US Dollar Could FAIL With More Financial Sanctions
The Energy News Beat Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their June 4th, 2025, Energy News Beat Substack post, "Why The US Dollar Could FAIL With More Financial Sanctions," discuss the implications of increasing financial sanctions on the stability of the US dollar. The authors highlight several key news stories impacting the global energy market, illustrating the evolving geopolitical landscape and its effects on energy production, trade, and consumption. Specifically, they analyze the shrinking UK North Sea oil and gas sector due to anti-fossil fuel policies, Brazil's successful integration of LNG power plants into its predominantly renewable energy mix, and Russia's continued ability to export LNG despite sanctions, utilizing a “dark fleet” of tankers and trading in rubles, thus circumventing the US dollar.
The implications of these trends are far-reaching, with Turley and Tanner emphasizing the potential erosion of the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. They cite the growing trend of energy trade conducted outside the US dollar and analyze the significant financial implications for the US economy. They also discuss the Texas legislative session's conclusion, focusing on its allocation of significant funds to bolster natural gas infrastructure and its impact on energy independence and investment opportunities within the US. The authors conclude by emphasizing the urgent need for a reassessment of the US dollar's global standing and to address the implications of these geopolitical changes.
Inside the PFAS Forever Chemical Campaign War Room
THE FIREBREAK Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
David Zaruk reveals the inner workings of a coordinated campaign targeting trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), a member of the PFAS family of "forever chemicals." In his Substack post, "Inside the PFAS Forever Chemical Campaign War Room," Zaruk details how activists, using a meticulously crafted checklist, strategically selected TFA as the next target for a fear-mongering campaign designed to leverage public anxiety and secure funding. The selection criteria prioritized substances with widespread applications, links to large chemical companies, and a capacity to be portrayed as a significant health risk, even in the absence of conclusive scientific evidence. This approach, according to Zaruk, mirrors past campaigns targeting GMOs and pesticides, prioritizing narrative impact over rigorous scientific evaluation.
Zaruk highlights the activists' strategic manipulation of information, downplaying TFA's low toxicity, natural occurrence, and extremely low environmental levels. He exposes the activists' reliance on generating public fear and outrage, rather than presenting factual scientific information, to achieve their campaign goals. The deliberate targeting of TFA's association with pesticides is presented as a key tactic to amplify public concern and secure additional funding. Zaruk concludes by emphasizing the campaign's lack of concern for scientific accuracy and its ultimate objective: to advance an anti-industry agenda at the expense of sound scientific judgment and evidence-based policy making. This campaign underscores the need for critical evaluation of activist-driven campaigns and the importance of evidence-based risk assessment in regulatory decision-making.
Anti-Magnetic
Robert Bryce Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Robert Bryce analyzes China's dominance in the rare earth market and its implications for global automakers. He highlights how China's strategic investment in rare earth mining and refining, spurred by Deng Xiaoping's vision in 1992, has led to its near-monopoly on the production of neodymium-iron-boron magnets crucial for automobiles and numerous consumer products. This control has created a significant strategic vulnerability for nations dependent on these materials, as evidenced by recent plant shutdowns due to supply chain disruptions.
Bryce argues that President Trump's trade war with China exacerbated this pre-existing vulnerability, illustrating the consequences of neglecting geopolitical realities. The author emphasizes that China's use of rare earths as a trade weapon is not new, and the current crisis should serve as a wake-up call for nations to diversify their sources and invest in domestic rare earth production. The situation highlights the inherent risks associated with relying on a single nation for critical resources and the need for a more strategic approach to securing vital supply chains.
Greta and Her Diesel-Powered Dream.
Green Leap Forward Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Green Leap Forward, in their June 4th, 2025 Substack post, "Greta and Her Diesel-Powered Dream," satirically critiques the perceived hypocrisy of climate activist Greta Thunberg's use of a diesel-powered yacht for travel. The post employs a humorous, rhyming format to highlight the irony of Thunberg's actions, contrasting her public advocacy for environmental protection with the significant carbon footprint of her chosen mode of transportation. The author cleverly uses the poem to question the narrative surrounding her activism and implicitly raises concerns about the consistency between her actions and pronouncements.
The piece underscores the potential disconnect between symbolic gestures and the practical realities of environmental action, suggesting that focusing solely on public image and messaging may overshadow the importance of substantive and sustainable solutions. By employing a lighthearted yet pointed approach, the author challenges readers to critically examine the complexities of climate activism and the potential for unintended consequences in the pursuit of environmental goals, ultimately inviting reflection on the broader implications of public figures' environmental actions and statements.
Leading Florida power provider blasts solar/wind subsidies
Energy Talking Points Published: Wed, 4 Jun 2025
Alex Epstein presents a compelling argument against solar and wind energy subsidies in a recent Substack post. He features a letter from Jacob Williams, CEO of Florida Municipal Power Agency (FMPA), a company serving three million Floridians, who directly challenges the prevailing narrative surrounding these subsidies. Williams argues that the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits for solar and wind power are detrimental to the reliable and affordable electricity supply essential for consumers.
Williams highlights the increased costs and unreliability of solar and wind energy compared to existing natural gas, nuclear, and coal resources. He points out that the peak demand shifts caused by solar energy's intermittency force conventional power plants to shoulder the burden, leading to higher costs and jeopardizing the stability of the electric grid. The letter concludes that ending subsidies for new solar and wind projects is crucial to maintaining affordable and dependable electricity, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Can We Rely on Wind Energy When Dunkelflautes Strike?
The Energy News Beat Published: Tue, 3 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their Energy News Beat Substack post, "Can We Rely on Wind Energy When Dunkelflautes Strike?", explore the challenges and complexities of relying solely on wind energy for a sustainable energy future. They highlight the critical issue of Dunkelflautes, periods of low wind and sunlight, which severely impact energy production and expose vulnerabilities in renewable-heavy grids, as demonstrated by recent events in Europe and the United Kingdom. The authors delve into various strategies proposed to mitigate these impacts including energy storage solutions, grid diversification, backup power, demand response, and overbuilding capacity, ultimately questioning the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of these approaches.
The post further investigates the often-overlooked environmental concerns associated with large-scale wind energy deployment. Turley and Tanner examine the potential for soil drying, alterations in wind patterns, and significant wildlife mortality, particularly impacting bird and bat populations. They raise concerns about a lack of transparency surrounding the impacts of offshore wind farms on whale populations, citing discrepancies in reported data and the need for further investigation. The authors conclude by emphasizing that while wind energy plays a crucial role in the transition to cleaner energy, a more nuanced and balanced approach is essential, one that acknowledges and addresses both the technological and environmental limitations of over-reliance on a single renewable energy source.
Disclaimer: these summaries are generated via LLMs and may not be accurate representations of the author’s views. Users are encouraged to follow the links and read the original works.