W/25-3 News from the Energy Archipelago
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Oil Context Weekly (W25) (Paywalled)
Commodity Context Published: Fri, 20 Jun 2025
Rory Johnston, in his Commodity Context Substack post "Oil Context Weekly (W25)," provides a concise weekly analysis of the oil market. He covers fluctuating crude prices, analyzing movements within the $70-$80 per barrel range for Brent crude, and discusses the complex interplay of futures curves, inventory shifts (with significant draws in the US and builds in Europe), and refined product markets. The report highlights the outperformance of diesel driven by increased import demand due to regional capacity losses and natural gas shortages.
Johnston's analysis also incorporates geopolitical factors, specifically referencing the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on market dynamics. He examines speculative trading activity, noting significant net buying in Brent crude contracts and the liquidation of short positions. The post touches upon the implications of potentially cheaper Iranian crude and the risks to refineries in the region, all while emphasizing the inherent difficulties in predicting geopolitical market impacts.
Iran and Barrel Risk: Three Scenarios (Paywalled)
Commodity Context Published: Fri, 20 Jun 2025
Rory Johnston, in his Substack post "Iran and Barrel Risk: Three Scenarios," analyzes the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and its potential impact on global oil markets. Johnston emphasizes that the current oil price response reflects a growing risk premium due to the potential, albeit still low-probability, for significant disruptions to oil supply. He argues that Israel, not Iran, currently holds the power to escalate the conflict, and the next major trigger for the oil market will be whether Israel expands its attacks to target Iranian oil export infrastructure. The author highlights the absence of any tangible impact on oil flows thus far, despite heightened media attention and public anxiety.
Johnston presents three scenarios: a de-escalation through a negotiated deal, leading to a price decline; an Israeli expansion of attacks on Iranian oil exports, resulting in a price spike; and an Iranian retaliatory strike against regional oil assets, causing a sharp price surge. He also considers the potential influence of US involvement, noting that while initially price-positive, such intervention might mitigate the risk of a broader conflict impacting oil supplies. The post concludes by acknowledging the unprecedented nature of the current situation, highlighting the potential for catastrophic supply losses and providing a framework for understanding the evolving risks and uncertainties within the global oil market.
Are Microgrids and power sources only for those who can afford them?
The Energy News Beat Published: Fri, 20 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their Energy News Beat Substack post, explore the critical issue of equitable access to microgrids and reliable power sources in the face of a global push towards renewables. They argue that the current rush to integrate renewable energy, coupled with the burgeoning demand from data centers, is overwhelming existing grid infrastructure, creating a potential scenario where only those who can afford it—namely, large corporations—benefit from robust power access, leaving consumers vulnerable to higher costs and outages.
The authors highlight the significant backlog of interconnection requests for new power sources, dominated by solar and wind but vastly exceeding the capacity of the grid. This, combined with the short-term planning horizons of tech companies building data centers, creates a mismatch between energy supply and demand. Turley and Tanner advocate for increased focus on distributed power management and the implementation of microgrids as a crucial step towards enhancing energy resilience and ensuring equitable access to reliable power, suggesting that communities and individuals should proactively prepare for potential power outages, rather than solely relying on government intervention.
Bad habits (Paywalled)
Irina Slav on Energy Published: Fri, 20 Jun 2025
Irina Slav examines the European Union's increasing reliance on joint borrowing, a practice she critiques as a dangerous habit mirroring problematic personal financial behaviors. Slav highlights the European Central Bank president's characterization of a nearly 90% debt-to-GDP ratio as "strong," a statement she finds alarming, particularly given the EU's struggles to repay existing COVID-19 related debt. This, she argues, reflects a broader societal acceptance of debt-fueled consumption, exemplified by readily available mortgages and loans that encourage excessive spending and create economic bubbles.
Slav draws parallels between the EU's actions and individual financial irresponsibility, citing examples of individuals prioritizing debt accumulation over responsible saving. She connects this pattern to the EU’s pursuit of increased borrowing to boost the euro’s international standing, arguing that this strategy prioritizes short-term gains over long-term financial stability and ultimately masks deeper issues stemming from unsustainable policies. Slav concludes by emphasizing the need for a shift away from this debt-centric approach, advocating for a more fiscally responsible model and questioning the wisdom of policies that prioritize borrowing over responsible financial management.
Tinned Soup and Tariffs
The Material World Published: Fri, 20 Jun 2025
Ed Conway, in his Substack post "Tinned Soup and Tariffs," explores the surprisingly complex journey of a seemingly simple product: the humble tin of Campbell's soup. Conway reveals how this quintessential American staple is unexpectedly caught in the crossfire of Donald Trump's trade war, highlighting the intricate global supply chains and manufacturing processes that underpin its production. The post delves into the complexities of producing "Drawn and Wall Ironed" (DWI) steel, a crucial component in tin can manufacturing, revealing the surprising difficulty in producing this high-quality steel and the limited number of global producers.
The article illustrates how the recent closure of Tata Steel's blast furnaces in Port Talbot, Wales, coupled with the imposition of US tariffs on imported steel, has far-reaching consequences. Conway demonstrates how the lack of domestically produced DWI steel in the US, combined with the ambiguous status of UK-produced steel under the proposed trade deal, contributes to the potential increase in prices for American consumers. This case study serves as a compelling example of the unintended and unforeseen consequences of trade wars, showing how seemingly isolated events can create intricate ripple effects across global markets, impacting seemingly simple everyday products.
HIRING: High-impact writers to join the Energy Talking Points team
Energy Talking Points Published: Fri, 20 Jun 2025
Alex Epstein, founder of the Energy Talking Points Substack, is seeking high-impact writers to join his content team. The team works directly with policymakers, influencers, and the public to advance pro-freedom energy and climate policies. The successful candidates will contribute to both public-facing content (newsletter, X) and behind-the-scenes messaging for policy leaders. The position offers remote or in-person work in Laguna Beach, CA, with competitive compensation.
Applicants must demonstrate high-impact writing skills, particularly in persuading target audiences, a strong alignment with energy freedom and free-market capitalism, an outcome-driven approach, and the ability to thrive in a fast-paced environment. The application process involves submitting an “Energy Talking Points”-style article on an energy or climate issue, which will be reviewed and potentially revised before a trial and possible full-time position. Detailed guidance on the article style and content is provided.
Michigan to bite hand that fuels it
Jason Hayes Published: Thu, 19 Jun 2025
Jason Hayes, director of energy and environmental policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, critiques Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel's planned lawsuit against the state's oil and gas industry. Hayes argues that the lawsuit, intended to hold the industry accountable for climate change, is a farcical cash grab based on weak science and questionable economics, given the state's simultaneous approval of 23 oil and gas permits and licenses in 2024 and 2025, and its substantial financial gains from the industry. He questions the state's apparent hypocrisy and suggests that Nessel’s efforts would be better directed towards addressing more immediate environmental concerns.
The article highlights the conflict between Michigan's legal action against fossil fuel companies and its continued licensing and profit-making from the same industry. The author cites the U.S. Department of Justice's countersuit, arguing the state's lawsuit infringes upon federal law. The ongoing legal battle raises concerns about the state's inconsistent approach to environmental policy and the ultimate success of such climate change litigation. The piece concludes by emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the lawsuit's future, especially with both Nessel and Governor Whitmer nearing the end of their terms.
Mouthpiece For Green Billionaires: Washington Post Fibs About Microplastics
THE FIREBREAK Published: Thu, 19 Jun 2025
David Zaruk, in his June 19, 2025, Substack post, "Mouthpiece For Green Billionaires: Washington Post Fibs About Microplastics," critiques the Washington Post's reporting on microplastics and climate change, arguing that it serves as a conduit for billionaire-funded activist propaganda rather than objective journalism. Zaruk exposes the significant financial conflicts of interest within the Plastics & Climate Project, the source of the Post's article, revealing its funding by organizations like ClimateWorks and the Packard Foundation, known for supporting extreme environmental activism and biased reporting. This financial backing, he claims, compromises the objectivity of the report and the Post's subsequent coverage.
The Post article, according to Zaruk, overstates the impact of microplastics on global warming, relying on speculative claims and limited evidence. It overlooks contradictory research findings and downplays the perspective of the plastics industry, which highlights plastics' contributions to emissions reductions in various sectors. Furthermore, the article fails to acknowledge the recent slowdown in global carbon emissions, making the potential impact of microplastics appear far more significant than it actually is. Zaruk concludes by asserting that the Post's reporting exemplifies a larger issue: journalists prioritizing activist agendas over factual reporting and critical analysis, thus creating an unnecessary climate of fear and hindering informed decision-making.
Wind And Solar Are BACK?!
The Energy News Beat Published: Thu, 19 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their June 19th, 2025, Energy News Beat Substack post, "Wind And Solar Are BACK?!", discuss recent developments in the energy sector, focusing on the political maneuvering surrounding wind and solar subsidies and the opposition to offshore oil and gas drilling. The authors highlight the Senate's weakening of the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) provisions for wind and solar projects, allowing for extended deadlines and potentially enabling companies to receive subsidies with minimal construction efforts. This is criticized as a setback for fair competition and a boon for well-connected lobbyists.
Furthermore, the post examines a coalition of twelve U.S. states filing complaints against offshore oil and gas drilling. Turley and Tanner satirically point out the irony of states with minimal or no offshore oil and gas production leading this charge, arguing that this action represents symbolic posturing rather than substantial environmental protection. The podcast also covers market updates, including a significant drop in U.S. crude oil stocks and the ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices, demonstrating a complex interplay between political decisions and market forces within the energy landscape.
Israel-Iran War: The Psychology of Strategic Surprise
WeissWord Published: Thu, 19 Jun 2025
The WeissWord Team, in their June 19, 2025, Substack post, Israel-Iran War: The Psychology of Strategic Surprise, analyzes the swift and decisive Israeli military operation, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," against Iran. The authors highlight the element of surprise as a crucial factor in the operation's success, contrasting it with the surprise attacks experienced by Israel (by Hamas) and Russia (by Syrian rebels). The analysis emphasizes the limitations of traditional intelligence gathering in predicting the actions of national leaders, illustrating how preconceived notions and miscalculations can lead to catastrophic consequences.
The post examines the flawed strategic conceptions of both Hezbollah and Iran, revealing how their assessments of Israeli capabilities and American intentions were fundamentally inaccurate. The authors detail how Israel's meticulously planned operations, including targeted assassinations and a sophisticated disinformation campaign, exploited these miscalculations. The conclusion underscores the enduring importance of the human element in warfare, arguing that even in the age of advanced technology, strategic surprise remains a potent weapon capable of toppling seemingly powerful regimes. The successful Israeli operation serves as a stark reminder of the limitations of relying solely on technological superiority and the critical importance of understanding the psychology of one's adversary.
If You're Thinking of Buying an EV
My Two Cents Published: Thu, 19 Jun 2025
Al Christie, in his June 19, 2025 Substack post, "If You're Thinking of Buying an EV," cautions potential buyers against the allure of electric vehicles. Christie presents a compelling case against EV ownership, highlighting significant drawbacks often overlooked in the current enthusiasm for electric transportation. He emphasizes the substantial risks associated with EV fires, citing numerous incidents involving cars and buses, including devastating ship fires and depot blazes. The inherent dangers of lithium-ion batteries, their propensity for spontaneous combustion, and the difficulty in extinguishing resulting infernos are central to his argument.
Beyond fire hazards, Christie lists ten additional reasons to avoid all-electric vehicles, ranging from higher initial costs and faster depreciation to the inconvenience of charging infrastructure, limited range, and escalating electricity prices. He contests the environmental benefits often touted for EVs, arguing that any potential savings on fuel are negated by rising electricity costs and the overall environmental impact. His post serves as a strong counterpoint to the prevailing narrative surrounding EVs, urging readers to carefully weigh the risks and inconveniences before making a purchase decision.
How big is the generational divide on climate change?
Sustainability By Numbers Published: Thu, 19 Jun 2025
Hannah Ritchie, in her June 19, 2025 Substack post, "How big is the generational divide on climate change?", challenges the widespread misconception of a significant generational gap in climate change attitudes. Ritchie presents data from multiple sources, including UK government surveys and studies published in Nature Communications, demonstrating that the differences in belief and concern about climate change between generations are surprisingly small, often negligible. This contrasts with the prevalent narrative portraying young people as overwhelmingly concerned and older generations as apathetic.
While some generational differences exist, they primarily concern preferred approaches to tackling climate change. Younger generations show a greater tendency towards advocating for systemic changes, while older generations focus more on individual lifestyle adjustments. However, even in this area, the discrepancies are less pronounced than commonly perceived. Ritchie concludes by emphasizing the shared concern across age groups and urges a focus on collaborative action rather than perpetuating divisive narratives that overstate the generational divide.
Dream or Delusion? More Cracks in Europe’s Masterplan
The Econolog Published: Wed, 18 Jun 2025
John Kohler, in his Substack post "Dream or Delusion? More Cracks in Europe’s Masterplan," published on June 18th, 2025, analyzes the significant setbacks plaguing Europe's ambitious green transition initiative. Kohler highlights the recent bankruptcies of key players in the renewable energy sector, specifically Meyer Burger, Europe's largest solar panel manufacturer, and Northvolt, a prominent battery producer, as critical indicators of underlying structural weaknesses within the EU's economic recovery plan. These failures, he argues, are not merely isolated incidents but rather symptomatic of a broader issue, revealing a fragility in the very foundation of the EU's industrial strategy.
The bankruptcies of Meyer Burger and Northvolt, Kohler contends, are alarming signs largely ignored by the public and policymakers. These companies represented crucial pillars of the EU's Green Deal, intended to both facilitate the energy transition and foster economic competitiveness. Their downfall, attributed to factors like supply chain disruptions, geopolitical instability, and shifting global demand, exposes the significant challenges facing Europe's attempt to create a self-sufficient renewable energy industry, undermining its ability to compete with global giants, such as Chinese battery producers. This casts serious doubt on the feasibility of the EU's green masterplan and suggests the need for a thorough reassessment of its economic strategy.
What Did We Expect Would Happen? (Paywalled)
The Honest Broker Published: Wed, 18 Jun 2025
Roger Pielke Jr. details the increasing politicization of science in the United States in a recent Substack post. He argues that the current adversarial relationship between the US government and the scientific community, exemplified by statements like Senator J.D. Vance's declaration that "The Universities are the Enemy," is not a recent phenomenon, but rather the culmination of decades-long trends. Pielke highlights shifts in public confidence in science along partisan lines, noting how, since the end of the Cold War, the relationship between science and politics has become increasingly entangled, with both Democrats and Republicans exploiting science for electoral gain.
Pielke's analysis reveals how scientists and academics, seeking increased political influence, have inadvertently contributed to this polarization. He emphasizes a loss of the "social contract" between science and society – the shared belief that science should benefit all Americans regardless of their political affiliation. By using data and historical context, Pielke demonstrates that the current state of affairs is the result of choices made by both political parties and the scientific community itself, raising the crucial question posed by Michael Clune: "What did we expect would happen?" This ultimately leads to a cautionary tale highlighting the detrimental effects of politicizing science.
Strait of Hormuz on Fire: Will China Move on Taiwan Next?
The Energy News Beat Published: Wed, 18 Jun 2025
Stu Turley and Michael Tanner, in their June 18th, 2025 Substack post, "Strait of Hormuz on Fire: Will China Move on Taiwan Next?", analyze the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and its potential ramifications for Taiwan's security. They highlight the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil and LNG transit point, and the significant vulnerability of Taiwan, heavily reliant on imported energy, to disruptions in this region. The authors discuss the potential for China, Iran's largest oil client, to exploit the crisis by escalating tensions with Taiwan, drawing attention to the interconnectedness of global energy markets and geopolitical flashpoints.
Further exploring this volatile situation, Turley and Tanner detail recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple tanker fires and collisions, suggesting a heightened level of risk. They also examine China's dominance in rare earth minerals, emphasizing the West's vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on Chinese processing. The authors note the Trump administration's efforts to address this issue, highlighting the importance of diversifying supply chains and investing in domestic mineral processing, concluding that the complex interplay of these global events creates an uncertain but potentially dangerous near-future geopolitical landscape.
Disclaimer: these summaries are generated via LLMs and may not be accurate representations of the author’s views. Users are encouraged to follow the links and read the original works.
I read the Firebreak's linked Wapo article, but FireBreak doesn't allow comments unless you pay them, so I'll comment here.
Regardless of the biased and unscientific nature of the claims about plastics referred to, microplastics getting into the environment may be a serious problem, since they're showing up all over the place, including the air we breathe, the food we eat, and the water we drink and our blood. I'm not sure how much damage this is doing to our health - I'd like to see more research.
Also, I wondered if some kinds of plastics contribute more microplastics than others, and this is what I found, to my surprise:
"The two biggest sources of micro plastics on land, in the air, and in human bodies are car tyres and synthetic textiles (e.g. polyester clothes). They are both the largest contributors, but for different particle sizes. It also depends on where exactly you are testing. Generally, synthetic textiles (clothing) contribute about 35% while car tyres contribute about 28%, together making up almost two thirds.
In oceans, those two sources represent about one third of micro plastics, with the remaining two thirds largely coming from the degradation of big plastic objects such as water bottles and plastic bags."
It would be prudent to avoid plastics when there are good alternatives. Using glass or steel containers instead of plastic, and cotton or wool fabrics, and paper or reusable cloth bags would be a good start. I never did like plastic water bottles - even before I ever heard of microplastics - I can hardly believe how many cases of those plastic bottles are stocked in our grocery store - who buys those things?